热门话题烫手山火:美国的未来.S. 房地产市场?

美国.S. housing market, already strong before the pandemic, has heated up to record levels in 2021. case - shiller U.S. 全国房价指数, 用什么方法衡量20个主要首都地区的房价, 12个月增长了18个.6% in June 2021, the largest year-over-year gain in data going back to 1987.1

全国房地产经纪人协会(NAR), 哪个提供了更多的当前数据, 报道称,全国现房均价为359美元,900年7月, 从创纪录的362美元下降,800年6月. Even so, this was the 113th consecutive month of year-over-year price increases. 6月至7月价格下降的部分原因是供应增加. 新房和现房的总库存量增加了7.比6月下降了3%,但仍然下降了12.一年前是0%.2

The July 2021 NAR data suggests that the red-hot market may be cooling slightly, 但价格仍然非常高, and industry experts expect them to remain high for the foreseeable future. Here’s a look at some key factors behind the current trend and prospects for future direction.


十多年来,住房供应一直很低. 房地产市场的崩溃摧毁了建筑业, 还有很多因素, 包括劳动力短缺, 关税, 有限的土地, 以及严格的许可程序, 新房供应量低于历史平均水平, 这给现有住房满足需求带来了更大压力.3

The pandemic exacerbated labor problems and led to supply-chain issues and high costs for raw materials that held back construction, 尽管经济低迷,但需求仍呈爆炸式增长. 随着远程工作和远程教育的转变, 许多有稳定工作的人都在寻找更大的空间, 低利率使得更高的价格更容易承受.4

同时, homeowners who might have seen high prices as an opportunity to sell were hesitant to do so because of economic uncertainty and the high cost of moving to another home. Refinancing at low rates offered an appealing alternative and kept homeowners in place. Government mortgage forbearance programs have helped families from losing their homes but also kept homes that might have otherwise foreclosed off the market.5

健康问题也起到了一定作用. The pandemic made it less appealing to have strangers entering a home for an open house. And older people who might have moved into assisted living or other senior facilities were more likely to stay in their homes.6

综上所述, these factors produced a perfect storm of low supply and high demand that drove already high prices to dizzying levels and created desperation among buyers. All-cash sales accounted for 23% of transactions in July, up from 16% in July 2020. The average home stayed on the market for just 17 days, down from 22 days last year. 几乎90%的房屋在不到一个月的时间内售出.7


与以往的经济衰退(阴影区)不同,美国经济增长放缓.S. housing prices have been on a tear since the pandemic recession of early 2020.

S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller全国房价指数

S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller全美房价指数:63.96700 in January 1987; 83.95900 in January 1997; 184.51900 in January 2007; 186.78000 in January 2017; 259.2021年6月02700

来源:年代&P Dow Jones Indices, 2021; retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. 路易


最近的库存增加主要是在更昂贵的房屋, 而且经济适用房仍然严重短缺. First-time buyers accounted for just 30% of purchases in July 2021, down from 34% the previous year.8 A common formula for home affordability is to multiply income by three — i.e.在美国,一对年收入10万美元的夫妇可能有资格购买30万美元的房子. A study of 50 cities found that home prices in Q2 2021 were, on average, 5.5 times the local median income of first-time buyers, putting most homes out of reach.9

The lack of affordable housing for first-time buyers also helps to drive rents higher. People with higher incomes who might be buying homes are willing and able to pay higher rents. Rents on newly signed leases in July were 17% higher than what the previous tenant paid, 有记录以来最高的跳跃. After dropping while many young people lived with parents during the pandemic, 租赁单位的入住率创历史新高,达到96人.9%.10


From 2006 to 2012, the housing market plummeted 60%, taking the broader U.S. 经济与它.11 住房市场崩盘后,抵押贷款要求变得更加严格, and homeowners today are more likely to afford their homes and to have more equity from larger down payments. 房地产市场一直是周期性的, so it’s likely that prices will turn downward at some point in the future, but less likely that prices will collapse the way they did during the Great Recession.12


价格如此之高,以致一些买主退缩了, but demand remains strong and will outstrip housing supply for the foreseeable future. Some near-term relief might come if high prices inspire more homeowners to sell, and if the end of government programs puts more foreclosed homes on the market. There are more single-family homes under construction than at any time since 2007, but it will take months or years for those homes to increase the housing supply.13

The housing market tends to be seasonal, with demand dying down in the fall and the winter. 这在去年没有发生, because pent-up demand was so strong that it pushed through the seasons. With the supply/demand tension easing, the seasonal slowdown may be more significant this year.14 The Federal pg电子 Loan Mortgage Corporation (Freddie Mac) projects that home prices will grow by 12.2021年将降至1%,低于目前的增速,并进一步降至5.2022年增长3%.15


Although national trends reflect broad economic forces, the housing market is fundamentally local. 西方是最昂贵的地区, 价格中位数为508美元,现有住房300英镑, 其次是东北部(411美元),200), 南(305美元,200), 中西部地区(275美元),300).16 Within regions, there are dramatic price differences among states, cities, and towns. 远程工作的趋势, 是什么推动了价格上涨, may help moderate prices in the long term by allowing workers to live in more affordable areas.

There are inherent risks associated with real estate pg电子s and the real estate industry, each of which could have an adverse effect on the financial performance and value of a real estate pg电子. 这些风险包括:国家经济的恶化, 区域, and local economies; tenant defaults; local real estate conditions, 如供过于求, 或需求减少, rental space; property mismanagement; changes in operating costs and expenses, 包括增加的保险费用, 能源价格, 房地产税, 以及遵守法律的成本, 规定, 和政府的政策. 房地产pg电子可能并不适合所有的pg电子者. Projections are based on current conditions, are subject to change, and may not come to pass.