Revisiting the 4% Rule

Saving for retirement is not easy, but using your retirement savings wisely can be just as challenging. How much of your savings can you withdraw each year? Withdraw too much and you run the risk of running out of money. 取得太少,你可能会错过更舒适的退休生活方式.

For more than 25 years, the most common guideline has been the “4% rule,这意味着相当于初始pg电子组合价值的4%, with annual increases for inflation, is sustainable over a 30-year retirement. 这条指南可以帮助你规划一个储蓄目标,并提供一个你的储蓄可能提供的年收入的现实画面. For example, a $1 million portfolio could provide $40,第一年的收入为000美元,随后几年扣除通货膨胀因素.

多年来,4%的规则引发了大量的讨论, 一些专家说4%太低了,另一些人说太高了. The most recent analysis comes from the man who invented it, financial professional William Bengen, 谁认为这一规则被误解了,并根据新的研究提出了新的见解.

Original Research

Bengen first published his findings in 1994, 根据对51个不同年份的退休数据进行分析, from 1926 to 1976. He considered a hypothetical, 保守的pg电子组合,包括50%的大盘股和50%的中期美国国债,在一个税收优惠的账户中持有,并每年进行再平衡. 在最坏的情况下(1968年10月退休),扣除通胀因素后4%的取款率是可持续的最高水平, the beginning of a bear market and a long period of high inflation. 其他所有退休年的可持续比率都更高,有些高达10%甚至更高.1

Of course, no one can predict the future, 这就是为什么本根建议将最坏的情况作为一个可持续的利率. He later adjusted it slightly upward to 4.5%, based on a more diverse portfolio comprising 30% large‑cap stocks, 20% small-cap stocks, and 50% intermediate-term Treasuries.2

New Research

In October 2020, 本根发表了一项新的研究,试图基于退休时的两个关键因素:股市估值和通货膨胀(消费者价格指数的年度变化),预测一个可持续的退休率。. In theory, when the market is expensive, it has less potential to grow, 随着时间的推移,维持不断增加的取款可能会更加困难. On the other hand, lower inflation means lower inflation-adjusted withdrawals, allowing a higher initial rate. For example, a $40,000 first-year withdrawal becomes an $84,20年后,每年4%的通货膨胀率却只有58美元,000 with a 2% increase.

To measure market valuation, Bengen used the Shiller CAPE, the cyclically adjusted price-earnings ratio for the S&P 500 index developed by Nobel laureate Robert Shiller. 股票的市盈率(P/E)是股价除以过去12个月的每股收益. For example, if a stock is priced at $100 and the earnings per share is $4, the P/E ratio would be 25. The Shiller CAPE divides the total share price of stocks in the S&P 500 index by average inflation-adjusted earnings over 10 years.

5% Rule?

本根再次使用1926年至1990年退休日期的历史数据,发现退休时的市场估值和通胀与最大可持续退休率之间存在明显的相关性. Historically, rates ranged from as low as 4.5% to as high as 13%, but the scenarios that supported high rates were unusual, 市场估值非常低,而且/或出现通缩而不是通胀.3

For most of the last 25 years, the United States has experienced high market valuations, and inflation has been low since the Great Recession.4–5 In a high-valuation, low-inflation scenario at the time of retirement, 本根发现,5%的初始戒断率可以持续30 年.6 While not a big difference from the 4% rule, this suggests retirees could make larger initial withdrawals, particularly in a low-inflation environment.

需要注意的是,目前的市场估值非常高&P 500 index had a CAPE of 33.98 on December 30, 2020, 这一水平仅在20世纪90年代末的互联网繁荣时期达到(并超过),比本根的任何研究情景都要高.7 他认为5%的提款率的范围是CAPE为23或更高,通胀率在0%至2之间.5%.8 (Inflation was 1.2% in November 2020.)9 本根的研究表明,如果市场估值跌至历史平均水平16点附近.只要通货膨胀率为5%或更低,6%的提现率可能是可持续的. 另一方面,如果估值保持在高位,通货膨胀超过2.5%, the maximum sustainable rate might be 4.5%.10

重要的是要记住,这些预测是基于历史情景和假设的pg电子组合, 而且也不能保证你的pg电子组合会以类似的方式表现. 还要记住,这些计算是基于年度通货膨胀调整后的提款, 你可能会选择在某些年份不增加提款,或者使用其他标准来进行调整, such as market performance.

虽然不能保证与金融专业人士合作会改善pg电子结果, 专业人士可以评估你的目标和可用资源,并帮助你考虑适当的长期财务策略, including your withdrawal strategy.

所有pg电子均受市场波动、风险及本金损失之影响. 当出售时,pg电子的价值可能高于或低于其原始成本. U.S. 国库券由联邦政府保证及时支付本息. 国库券的本金价值随市场状况而波动. 如果不持有至到期,它们的价值可能会高于或低于最初支付的金额. Asset allocation and diversification are methods used to help manage investment risk; they do not guarantee a profit or protect against investment loss. Rebalancing involves selling some investments in order to buy others; selling investments in a taxable account could result in a tax liability.

The S&P 500指数是一个不受管理的证券组合,被认为是美国股市的代表.S. stock market in general. 非管理指数的表现并不代表任何特定pg电子的表现. Individuals cannot invest directly in an index. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Actual results will vary.